Too Late For Portable XBOX?

Last year, in Microsoft's legal battle against the Federal Trade Commission, it was revealed that they were planning a portable device. There has been so much more going on with the XBOX division since then, this finding had fallen off the radar until last week when Phil Spencer confirmed that Microsoft indeed is working on a portable device, but it is still a few years away. The response from the media and from gamers was very mixed. Some saying that it is too little, too late. Others are intrigued about the prospect of a portable XBOX, and some are excited about it. Let's start off with the notion of it being "too late" for Microsoft to release a portable console. I'm curious as to why someone would come to that conclusion. It is almost 2025 and we STILL have not even heard an official code-name for the Nintendo Switch successor yet. We honestly have no idea when we will hear anything because Nintendo is in no hurry to announce anything. Valve has stated that they plan to release a Steam Deck 2, but only when a "generation-leap" is possible, and affordable. That could be some time, but there is a caveat to that in regards to what the "possible" hook is in the Switch successor that I will discuss later. ASUS has not made any major statements on a possible ROG Ally 2, but it is believed that they are working on something. Lenovo has flat out stated that Legion Go 2 is coming, but no ETA on the device. So, all of these devices are in the future, and not necessarily the near future. Microsoft definitely has time in that regard. Secondly, it is clear that hybrid-gaming is the future of consoles. While the set-top box may never go away 100%, I think with devices such as the PS5 Pro, set-box boxes will transition into become more of a niche' device for enthusiasts that just want the hardcore, powerful, gaming-machine. Consoles may start to become basically gaming PCs in a box, but instead of it being a closed-system where whatever you have is what you have and you are stuck with it, you might be able to upgrade components on your own. This is just a theory though as there are several problems that could get in the way of doing that. Still, I don't think set-top boxes as we know them have much of a future. Hybrid-devices definitely have a future, and from that aspect Microsoft is certainly not "behind." Lastly, I think why several people are clinging onto this notion of it being "too late" for Microsoft to release a portable device is because of the elephant in the room. XBOX Game Pass Regardless on whatever opinion you may have, XBOX Game Pass on a dedicated XBOX portable device is going to cook like Chef Boyaredee, and if you are a hopeless-fanatic of any brand or piece of plastic that doesn't have an XBOX or Microsoft logo on it, that frightens you. If you are a NORMAL-person, XBOX Game Pass on a dedicated-device either doesn't interest you one way or another because you aren't into XBOX, it is interesting, or it is potentially exciting. With someone like me that really has little to no interest of Microsoft's 1st-party IP going forward (because they ruined them all,) BUT you still want to play your old XBOX games spanning the original XBOX all the way to the current XBOX Series family, and have the ability to take that with you on the go? I'd buy that. I miss not being able to play all my old XBOX titles, but I have no desire to buy an XBOX Series X or S just to gain access to them. A hybrid-device from Microsoft might be just what the doctor ordered. Now to be fair, this would also be just a niche' device. Obviously, you can play 1st-party XBOX titles on many other devices, but having a dedicated-device built from the ground up with Windows in mind would be more of an asset than a hindrance as it is with other PC hybrid-devices. So, this door is wide open for Microsoft right now. I think that one of the reasons why a portable device is still a few years away is because they want to be able to match or exceed whatever Lenovo, Valve, and ASUS are working on, and they want to find a way to incorporate Windows in an intuitive way that is not as cumbersome as it is on the other devices. It's not too late. It fact, it might just be right on schedule. However, that caveat that I spoke of earlier could change the plans of all the other companies. As I've stated in previous blogs, the "RUMORED" code-name for the Switch successor is "Oz." This would suggest that despite the modest hardware that may be in the device, Nintendo and nVidia may have come up with a way to make the visuals and performance "appear" to be top-end, thus giving you pseudo bleeding-edge performance at an affordable price. IF that is the case, that changes everything and it could once again be Nintendo pulling the okey-doke on the industry. As I always say about Nintendo, just when you think you've got all the answers, they change the questions. Microsoft knows this, and this is probably why they are bringing Call Of Duty to the Switch platform, and it could be why they are waiting. If my suspicions of what the Switch successor is are true, and it is a success in the marketplace, rather than go hard on horsepower, Microsoft may choose to do what Nintendo "ALLEGEDLY" is doing. To be honest, I think everyone is waiting on the first domino to fall with the

Switch successor.

Back to normal?

While not impossible, it is highly improbable that Nintendo will announce anything regarding the Switch successor in 2024. This IS Nintendo however, so you never know. They clearly are not oblivious to the online banter regarding the elusive device, and have been releasing information about other Nintendo-related things on dates and times people are expecting to hear about the Switch successor. For the people that are disappointed or even angry that there has been no information as of yet, it is fair to suggest that it's their own fault that they expected to hear or see anything regarding the Switch successor, when Nintendo has given you nothing to go on accept for a tweet back in May stating that you would receive information about the device before the end of the fiscal-year, which is at the end of March of 2025. However, again, in their defense, it wasn't like it was some pie-in-the-sky notion or suggestion fueled by hope. There were logical reasons to expect to hear something by now. The fact that the console has PASSED the marker of a typical Nintendo console generation which is 5-7 years is a good reason. The last time that there was a gap this large between console launches for Nintendo was with the Famicom which released in Japan in 1983, and then the Super Famicom which released in Japan in 1990. The fact that the Nintendo Switch itself was announced around this time 8 years ago is also a good reason to expect to have heard something by now. Even if it is just a code-name. However, of the rumored code-name of the Switch successor which is "OZ" is true, that might give too much away of what the hook of the console is, which is why it has only been shared with developers.....ALLEGEDLY. Now, you can add in all the rumors and leaked information if you want to. It's not right or wrong, but they can always clap-back by saying that they never confirmed or denied any rumors, thus not making them liable. Just based off of the stuff I mentioned that we know for sure, those are good reasons. So, if we don't hear anything this year, there is no reason to kick yourself. It's not a big deal. While I don't know for certain as to why we haven't heard anything as if yet, as I stated in my last blog "They'll Unveil It When They Get Ready To," it could be a production-based issue. I have heard a few rumblings here and there about some issues regarding production of their next-generation device, but again those are RUMORS so you can't put any stock in that. The other reason is what I want to talk about now. It's something that is so obvious that I'm not sure why I didn't think of this sooner. Maybe things are just back to "normal" for Nintendo? All things being equal, for the past 20+ years, unless there are extenuating circumstances, Nintendo usually unveils new home console hardware in the Summer, and releases it in the late Fall, early Winter. There has been hardware that released outside of that window before, but the GameCube, Wii, and Wii U all were released in November. Obviously, the Switch broke from that tradition, but that was a special case. They could not afford NOT to have the hardware on the market, so they had to get it out as soon as possible, and this probably played a part to many technical-issues the system had at launch, and features being left out of the device. NOW, Nintendo is playing with power (pun intended.) They don't have to rush the Switch successor. The Switch itself is still selling great, and even if they announced the successor now, it would still sell great. So, being that they don't have to rush, it may just be that we could be back on a regular schedule with Nintendo. What I mean is, they may give us a 3-minute trailer sometime between now and March 2025, but they may not actually have a full presentation of the device until the June Nintendo Direct during the Summer Game Showcase week. Likewise, the console may not even release until late 2025. REMEMBER... One of the other few statements Nintendo made was that they wanted to make sure that they have more than enough consoles to combat online scalpers. While it is a good idea to make sure you have enough stock on-hand, it is tricky to try to guess market reception of a product. So, enclosing I say that we may actually be in for a longer wait than we think before we get a real presentation of the Switch successor. They can drop a trailer at any time. I don't expect to see one any time soon, but since Nintendo is trying to get into the trolling-game, it would not surprise me that just when people think that they won't, or can't announce the device, they actually do.

They'll Announce It When They Feel Like It

"For those who believe, no explanation is necessary. For those that don't believe, no explanation will do. ~ Jeff Jarrett People really need to stop trying to analyze when and where Nintendo will give info on the successor to the Nintendo Switch.  They also need to stop acting like they weren't expecting Nintendo to reveal something by this point and then act as though it would be a "mistake" to announce it now when they know for certain that they aren't getting the info that they wanted, when they wanted it. The picture above describes where we are with the Switch successor. I'm not going to post the quote, but if you have seen the movie Spaceballs you know what I am talking about. On March 17th, 2015, Nintendo “announced” that it was working on a new device code-named “Project NX.”  They also said not to expect to hear anymore about the device for at least one year.  The Nintendo Switch was unveiled in October of 2016.  So they did exactly what they said, and food for though going forward.

Nintendo announced the successor to the Nintendo Switch in May of 2024 of this year and stated that we will hear about the console before the fiscal-year ends which is between March and April of 2025. So, we are well within the window of Nintendo announcing something, and any time is fair game. It seems like people that didn't get information when THEY wanted to get it are now trying to rationalize it by saying things like..... "Well, why would Nintendo reveal it before the Holiday? That just doesn't make sense." Of course, these same people had NO PROBLEM with this idea when they thought they were for sure getting some news about the Switch successor before those dates that THEY CHOSE for it to be revealed expired. The whole notion that Nintendo does not want to disturb Holiday sales by announcing a new product is a misnomer for a lot of reasons. Here is why.

In 2016, Nintendo announced bundles for both the Wii U and 3DS that were to go on sale AFTER the announcement of the Nintendo Switch. Yes, the Wii U was a failed platform, but with that being the case, what sense does it make to create a new bundle for it unless you expected it to be profitable? Companies don't just make bundles for the sake of making them. They do that because they expect to make money. So, clearly Nintendo did not feel that the announcement of the Switch would affect those sales or affect them enough to where it would severely curtail profits. The factor that you have to remember is that Nintendo is a publicly-traded company. Regardless on how much cash Nintendo has on hand (which is in the billions,) shareholders don't have access to any of that. Their profits are tied into the market cap. So, if Nintendo market cap is low (which is was at the time compared to now,) so is the stock for the shareholders. So, they want assurance that Nintendo would do something to bolster profits. To add to that, the 3DS WAS selling very well, and consistently. It continued to sell well even after the Switch was launched. The Switch was shown as a hybrid-device which means that it would take the place of a device that was actually selling very well. Sure, the Switch cannot do 3D, but no one was using 3D anymore on the 3DS at that time anyway. So, it would be logical to say that revealing a new device that is substantially more powerful than the 3DS before announcing new bundles for a console that was the only saving-grace for Nintendo in the 8th-gen was a huge risk for shareholders, but they did it anyway, and it worked just fine. So, that is why I call shenanigans on the whole idea of Nintendo not "revealing" the Switch successor before Black Friday because they do not want to disturb Holiday sales. I mean, Nintendo LITERALLY did the exact thing people are claiming they would "never" do, and they refuse to acknowledge or, or make excuses as to why they wouldn't know even when they are in a position of power where there is no risk at all, only gain, whereas when they actually did it, they were in a position of weakness and if it didn't work it could have caused major damage. To summarize... ~ 1. NO ONE was claiming this idea when they FOR SURE thought that the Switch successor would be unveiled around the same time the Switch was.

~ 2. When Nintendo was in a bad financial situation in 2016 where they needed strong sales from the products that they already had on the market to satisfy their shareholders, they still chose to unveil a product with superior qualities and capabilities that would make both of the incumbent products superfulous, and it didn't have a deleterious-effect at all. People also need to understand that what Nintendo did in 2016 was just a teaser-trailer. Just a quick-video to show you what it was, and primarily what it was about. That was basically it. We didn't get a full blow-out of the device for another three months A three minute and thirty-seven second trailer was definitely enough to get the industry buzzing, but not nearly enough information to make an informed-decision on a purpose. Yet STILL, they gave you the release date of the device on March 2017. Further proof of them either not caring, or feeling that this information would not be an issue for Holiday sales. Lastly, to put this to bed once and for all let me just be blunt.

Announcing the Switch successor will NOT prevent the Nintendo Switch from surpassing the Sony PlayStation 2 if that is something that you care about. I don't. No money is going into my bank account if they break that record, and I would be safe to venture a guess that the people that DO care, this applies to them as well. Nintendo has already stated that it will support the Switch well into the next-generation. This is not unique. In fact, it is par-for-the-course for consoles that sell over 100+million units. For instance, the Sony PlayStation 2 (which is the best-selling console of all-time FOR NOW,) released in the year 2000 and did not stop production until January of 2013. That was just 9 months before the PlayStation 4. That's lasting 2 full console generations. The original PlayStation sold well into the PS2 lifecycle. The Wii sold well into the Wii U lifecycle. The PlayStation 4 is STILL being manufactured today 4 years into the PlayStation 5 lifecycle. The Nintendo Switch has been on the market going on almost 8 years and has not even had a PRICE DROP, yet. So, this thing has long legs and will have no problem selling 10-15 million more units by the time it is no longer being manufactured. So, there is no logical reason AT ALL why Nintendo cannot, or should not announce the Switch successor before the Holiday season. When it absolutely could have hurt them in the past, it did not. I don't know when they will. If I had to venture a guess as to why it has taken so long to say anything, I would say that it has something to do with development or production. There is a snag somewhere that is hindering progress and they cannot take an incomplete product to their shareholders. Even if the "design" itself is finished, there are TONS of moving parts to mass-producing any consumer product, and you are dealing with dozens of companies all supplying different pieces to your end-product. If any one of those partnerships goes sour, or has technical difficulties in manufacturing those parts, that can slow the whole train down. Again, this is just a guess. I have no knowledge or proof that there are any delays in production. This is just something that happens a lot in the production of consumer electronics. For the people are basically saying..... "Well, since the Switch 2 wasn't announced when I thought it would have been, should have been, or when I wanted it to, it shouldn't be revealed before the Holidays at ALL," ......I feel like that is just a coping-mechanism. They won't admit that, but that is what it is in my opinion. I've already given a preponderance of evidence as to why in this blog. Nintendo does not need to sell another Nintendo Switch EVER AGAIN. In fact, Nintendo could not sell ANYTHING for 20 years, and still be just fine. They have 13 billion dollars in liquid-assets (cash-on-hand.) That's money they can take out of the bank and put in their pockets. Outside of the hardware just not being ready (which is just a possibility I threw out there,) there are no internal or external reasons why Nintendo cannot drop a three-minute trailer introducing a new product. NONE. It's not because they are afraid of it disrupting Holiday sales. It's not because they feel it will hinder a shot at surpassing the PS2. It's not because of the US Elections which is an idea I find COMPLETELY ridiculous. The only way that would be an issue is if they announced it ON Election day, where it would almost certainly get lost in the shuffle. I would agree to that part. Sure.

Many people have already voted. Many people are voting today, and they will be tomorrow. November 5th is the deadline TO vote. Nintendo could drop a trailer today, tomorrow, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. I'm sorry, but it just makes no sense at all to even suggest this. Nintendo is a Japanese company. The whole idea and design of Switch was to cater to THAT market. Sure, it is popular in the US, but the Western market has always been set-top box central. The PlayStation 5 outsells the Switch 3-to-1 in North America and Europe respectively. The Switch outsells the PlayStation 5 by a 5-to-1 margin in Japan. Even the XBOX Series X sells as well if not MORE on weekly basis in North America than the Switch, and of course it sells virtually NOTHING in Japan. I don't know when we will get any concrete information about the Switch successor. I have absolutely no idea. I have sufficiently proven why there is no reason they cannot. The reason why they haven't announced the successor to the Nintendo Switch is simple.....

THEY AIN'T GOT TO RIGHT NOW Period, point blank.